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| China's Power Industrial Development during the "Eleventh-Five Year Plan" Period |
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| March 1, 2007 |
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Source: China Electricity Council, March 2007
--Power Supply and Demand Increasing Continuously
To adapt to the economic growth trend, it is expected that the power demand during the "Eleventh-Five Year Plan" period will continuously increase steadily. Industrial power consumption is still dominant, the share of primary industry power consumption is expected to drop, whereas the share of urban and rural household power consumption and tertiary industry's power consumption will continue to increase quickly and the effect from the loads of air conditioners and other will increase remarkably. The rational electricity utilization demand which was suppressed during the "Tenth-Five Year Plan" period will be released during the said period. Hi-power consumers such as the ferrous, non-ferrous, building material and chemical industries will slow down the power utilization increased under the effect of the State's macro-control policy. It is estimated that the total social power consumption will be grown by 9~10%.
This year, the total social power consumption is estimated to grow by 13.5% this year and expected to increase by 12% next year. The national power supply and demand will be basically balanced next year. However, structural, seasonal, periodic sufficiency and provincial periodic insufficiency, seasonal tight supply will coexist simultaneously in terms of the structure of power industry and utilization.
-- Large Scale Power Related Investment and Construction
In the first two years during the ?Eleventh-Five Year Plan? period, the scale of generating units to be put into service will still be large and it is estimated the new installed capacity would exceed 80,000,000KW in 2006. Up till end of September 2006, the national total installed capacity reached 577 GW; the national accumulated generating capacity during January ~ October 2006 reached 224.52 TWH, up 13% over the same period of last year. There will be 75 million KW of units to be installed in 2007 and the proportion of thermal power will also be increased. In later "Eleventh-Five Year Plan" period, the on-stream speed is expected to drop.
It is estimated that the mid- and large-sized power projects will generate 300 GW during the ?Eleventh-Five Year Plan? period. The capacity of the condensed steam thermal power mini-units and oil units to be closed will reach above 15 million KW and 7 million KW respectively. The total installed generating capacity of five major power group corporations, i.e. Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian and Zhongdian will reach 350 GW.
Hydropower: It is estimated 50 million KW will be put into service, with the total capacity of 180 million KW?accounting for 23% of the total installed generating capacity and 32.3% of the potential hydropower power capacity. Pumped storage stations will also be built accordingly.
Coal-burning power generation: It is estimated over 170 GW will be put into operation, with the total capacity exceeding 550 GW.
Nuclear power, it is estimated 3 million KW will be on-stream with the total capacity at 10 million KW. The nuclear power generating bases have been extended from Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu to Shandong, Liaoning and some other related provinces.
Natural gas power generation: It is estimated that 13 million KW will be put into service. With a number of gas-steam IGCC generating units will be built, localization and batch production of such units will be promoted.
Wind Power: It is estimated that more than 5 million KW will be put into service.
Biomass power generation: Its capacity will exceed 5.5 million KW.
By 2010, the total installed capacity will reach 800 GW, with the annual growth at 9.4%. The generating capacity will be 367~400 GW; the average coal consumption by thermal power will be controlled at 355k/Kwh; the thermal power average usage rate by factory will decrease by 6%; line loss will drop to 7%; power generated by water, nuclear, gas, wind and clean energy account for 35% of the total; the average capacity of a single-unit will be increased to 60,000KW and thermal power single units with the with the capacity at and above 300,000KW will account for 60%.
--Expanded Scale of West-East Electricity Transmission Project
During the "Eleventh-Five Year Plan" period, China will have a new trend of power grid construction with total investment over RMB1000 billion. This year, the power grid investment in China is close to RMB200 billion. China will put 30,000km transmission line of 220kv into service, with the transformation capacity at 1.5 billion Kva. Such investment will mainly focus on the construction of the regional- or provincial-level main power grids, key urban distribution power grids and rural power grids. The West-East electricity transmission will be enhanced continuously. The northern channel will further increase, the electricity transmission from West Inner Mongolia and Shanxi to Beijing and Tianjin. The hydropower at the upper reaches of Huanghe River and thermal power from Ningxia, the thermal power from North Shaanxi will be transmitted to North China and Shandong will be promoted. By 2010, transmitted power will reach 26.5 million Kw and increased to 613 GW by 2020; For the central channel, the plant on the right bank of Three Gorges and the large-sized hydropower stations along Jinsha River and within Sichuan will be constructed as key projects so as to transmit electricity to East and Central China, with the transmitted capacity at 19.2 million KW in 2010, and increased to 43.3 million KW by 2020; For the southern channel, the cascade hydropower stations at Hongshui River, Wujiang River and Lancang River and large Kengkou Power Station in Yunnan and Guizhou will be developed continuously to ensure the completeness of the West-East Electricity Transmission Project as scheduled. The transmitted capacity will reach 20.6 million KW and 32.7 million KW by 2010 and 2020 respectively. The West-East Electricity Transmission project will reach 66.6 million KW by the year 2010 which is doubling the scale during the "Tenth-Five Year Plan" period. By 2020, 140 GW will be accomplished which is another double when comparing to that of 2010.
--Development Objectives of the Power Equipment during -Eleventh-Five Year Plan? Period
Enhancing the independent design and manufacturing capability of power equipment; Increasing the investment in R&D; sharpening the domestic and international competitive edge of power equipment continuously; Strengthening the close combination of scientific research with production and technology with economy; Accelerating the digestion and absorption of the imported technologies; Reinforcing the technical reserve and facilitating the commercialization and industrialization of research results, so as to make China power equipment and technologies to be close to or reach the internationally standard and to meet the demand of power industry for the sustainable development.
The key technical equipment and engineering system design, manufacturing technology with respect to large-sized nuclear power, ultra super-critical thermal power unit, heavy-duty gas turbine, super large-sized hydropower unit, circulating fluidized-bed boiler, large-sized air-cooling unit, large-sized pumped storage unit and large-sized complete AC/DC transmission/transformation equipment and the power equipment with the independent intellectual rights will be developed.
The key power equipment to be developed during the "Eleventh-Five Year Plan" period: large-sized hi-efficiency and low-pollution thermal power unit, large-sized hydropower unit and pumped storage unit, 1000MW-level pressurized water reactor nuclear power unit, heavy-duty gas turbine combined cycle generating equipment, networking-type MW-level wind power generating equipment, large-sized circulating fluidized-bed boiler and AC/DC SHV and UHV transmission and transformation equipment.
--Making Efforts to Keep the Properly Proactive
development of power industry by Adhering to Basic development Guideline for power industry during "Eleventh-Five Year Plan" Period
The development guideline for power industry during the said period: to promote the utilization efficiency of energy; to stress on the ecological environmental protection; to optimize the development of thermal power; to enhance the building of power grids; to develop hydropower orderly; to push forward the nuclear power actively; to develop the natural gas generation properly; to encourage the new-energy generating; to drive the progress of equipment's industrial technology; to enhance the international cooperation and to deepen the structural reform of power industry.
Electricity as the economic and social development ground, its development should be incorporated with the national economy development. The shortage of power supply must inevitably affect such development and progress seriously. A longer cycle is required for the planning and designs in the power industry. That means power industry must be developed in advance of the economic development. On the other hand, installed unit per capita of China is still very low, lagging far behind those developed countries. The relatively assuasive balance we have obtained with efforts over years is still at low level, fragile and temporary. At present, power structure in China is still unreasonable. Quite a number of hi-energy consumption and hi-pollution mini- to medium-thermal power units will be drop out from the market. Hence, we shall correctly address the characters of the power supply in these two years to be high speed, large scale and relatively centralized investment. Under such moderate supply and demand circumstances, scale, speed and investment still have to be kept.
The large-sized activities to be sponsored by China Electricity Council in the year 2007:
1. EP Shanghai 2007: 6~7 June, 2007, Shanghai International Exhibition Center;
2. China International Power Generation Technology Conference, subject: green power?New Trend of China?s Power Generation in 21st Century: 5~6 June, 2007, Shanghai Hongqiao Hotel;
3. China Power Forum: third quarter in 2007, venue: to be confirmed;
4. Sixth International Conference on Power Transmission and Distribution: November 2007, venue: to be confirmed;
China International Electric Power Exhibition: November 2007, Indonesia. |
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